Will "compete" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 1825 launches in the last hour referenced "compete" (62 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": -2.335710512962312,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24434052078232152
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "compete",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0033112582781456954,
    "share60": 0.03422782037239869,
    "total15": 452,
    "total60": 1825,
    "momentum": 0.09674172185430463,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 62
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 206,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940675,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997528125
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24434052078232152
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009010049670786647,
  "shareRatio": 0.49998081820842066,
  "totalAfter": 43285,
  "shareBefore": 0.0018141191566558262,
  "totalBefore": 45201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity