Will "skyrocket" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1825 launches in the last hour referenced "skyrocket" (3 distinct creators, rank #130). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.4392224083843361,
      "diversity": -0.44999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1717741564763698
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "skyrocket",
    "rank60": 130,
    "share15": 0.0011037527593818985,
    "share60": 0.004654983570646221,
    "total15": 452,
    "total60": 1825,
    "momentum": 0.23711206336839374,
    "diversity": 0.375,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 206,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940675,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99901125
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1717741564763698
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00148326034750671,
  "shareRatio": 0.7191796641616544,
  "totalAfter": 14158,
  "shareBefore": 0.0020545599817372445,
  "totalBefore": 8761,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 21,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity