Ledger / Prediction #3165 · narrative · 6H

Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 1825 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (69 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.14×.

Made2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": -1.959415782153927,
      "diversity": 0.2661971830985916
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23029209574872386
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.005518763796909493,
    "share60": 0.0391566265060241,
    "total15": 452,
    "total60": 1825,
    "momentum": 0.14094073696722703,
    "diversity": 0.971830985915493,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 69
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 206,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940675,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99901125
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23029209574872386
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.592

Log loss1.468

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016103969487215708,
  "shareRatio": 1.1357624863462608,
  "totalAfter": 14158,
  "shareBefore": 0.014153635429745463,
  "totalBefore": 8761,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 228,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 124
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "crypto" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.42% → 1.61% (+14%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "crypto" (6H). momentum contributed -1.96 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "crypto". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf729e9b2a81bb1c539de1e4f12e25749aa45dfe328ce5687f1b57707434b072e

Previous hash8fbf8e0999417905501a6bfc8978549945edb694881c1fc47dc0a28ef30c976d