Ledger / Prediction #3161 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 1825 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (14 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.47×.

Made2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -0.7495294626924787,
      "diversity": -0.6666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21146589959879677
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.018763796909492272,
    "share60": 0.03970427163198247,
    "total15": 452,
    "total60": 1825,
    "momentum": 0.4725888711273502,
    "diversity": 0.19444444444444445,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 206,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940675,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940675
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21146589959879677
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.045

Log loss0.238

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016437139049311416,
  "shareRatio": 0.4237612543639371,
  "totalAfter": 2251,
  "shareBefore": 0.039045553145336226,
  "totalBefore": 1844,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 37,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.90% → 1.64% (-58%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed -0.75 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbb84e6141a4016ec9d3176da45f2eedc8c7dae442d1e0fcb81180bce8b799447

Previous hash17b0e9d45d49a832fcdbb87186d639cc68272e670ab0df4624d8902c97d717a7