Ledger / Prediction #3158 · token · 6H

Will $FSS still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 14 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4tZtH4kNC3z2zJysMG5dM3xQxCGqRe6M8tTbq4YhftXT",
    "name": "Flying Space Scampi",
    "symbol": "FSS",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3072.9326519036426,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 14
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 577,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T13:43:02.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3072.9326519036426,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4551.8613517858275,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3072.9326519036426,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6145.865303807285
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $FSS would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,073, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $FSS (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5ed6821944d47869c880d99eb478c2b822b88b578481314ff2173e4a894b35a9

Previous hashfda3f0864aaddf72b79d5745e2286170177e3170f6a1d4830cb6a81dd021837a