GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3153 · narrative · 24H

Will "feet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

102 of 1933 launches in the last hour referenced "feet" (102 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.

Made2026-10-13 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45233023512752557,
      "momentum": -3.9561734771678587,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12989113934445737
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "feet",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0010141987829614604,
    "share60": 0.05299896587383661,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 1933,
    "momentum": 0.01913619947558502,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 102,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 102
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998458333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12989113934445737
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 14:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.017
Log loss0.139
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00009219138932423711,
  "shareRatio": 0.04278510025426091,
  "totalAfter": 43388,
  "shareBefore": 0.002413127413127413,
  "totalBefore": 45584,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 110
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "feet" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.01% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "feet" (24H). momentum contributed -3.96 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4017e72929b5799f73286300ac396eecdb5a73b3cee400f4939b697447ea0e8f
Previous hashdcd50201fbd5182901e45e658eabb1ed776a9a5e4a4804c9828e88e2a7d36667