GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3152 · narrative · 6H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 1933 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (8 distinct creators, rank #54). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

Made2026-10-13 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": -2.296725144159097,
      "diversity": -0.39473684210526316
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11467545588420121
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 54,
    "share15": 0.0010141987829614604,
    "share60": 0.010082730093071354,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 1933,
    "momentum": 0.10058771519217767,
    "diversity": 0.42105263157894735,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993833333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11467545588420121
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.784
Log loss2.165
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00681702806584959,
  "shareRatio": 1.0370558375634518,
  "totalAfter": 13789,
  "shareBefore": 0.006549178375803763,
  "totalBefore": 8398,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 94,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that "money" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.65% → 0.68% (+4%). PARTIAL.

— "money" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdcd50201fbd5182901e45e658eabb1ed776a9a5e4a4804c9828e88e2a7d36667
Previous hashe513546707a8ff44e0703ae7eb10d8ebabbf5571699fb406ee8cf312f074f7e3