Ledger / Prediction #3148 · narrative · 1H

Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1933 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (7 distinct creators, rank #153). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-13 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.3412136991316606,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21572709998573233
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "intelligence",
    "rank60": 153,
    "share15": 0.0010141987829614604,
    "share60": 0.0038779731127197518,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 1933,
    "momentum": 0.26152805949966196,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21572709998573233
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.615

Log loss1.534

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01250625312656328,
  "shareRatio": 3.2996999999999996,
  "totalAfter": 1999,
  "shareBefore": 0.0036082474226804126,
  "totalBefore": 1940,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "intelligence" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 1.25% (+247%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "intelligence" (1H). momentum contributed -1.34 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "intelligence". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashde0fc373fd2ed869bb009203ba21659b2890de529ee5bf7edf013bb51026aea7

Previous hash0c576266f1c1500f7815a4b693527e2c002c290db9c671dafde156779def234e