Ledger / Prediction #3147 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

91 of 1933 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (52 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

Made2026-10-13 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43521323911241244,
      "momentum": -0.40866244638572513,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38042730722923224
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.03144016227180527,
    "share60": 0.04731127197518097,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 1933,
    "momentum": 0.6645385118434033,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 91,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 52
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38042730722923224
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.384

Log loss0.967

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.048024012006003,
  "shareRatio": 1.0124675675675676,
  "totalAfter": 1999,
  "shareBefore": 0.04742268041237113,
  "totalBefore": 1940,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 96,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 92
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.74% → 4.80% (+1%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0c576266f1c1500f7815a4b693527e2c002c290db9c671dafde156779def234e

Previous hash11b4d2b5790bf938c79f4281e516023c9f839dbcf39d2e8d19b43a4ad7b4963d