Ledger / Prediction #3141 · token · 1H

Will $EOB still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 28m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "B1mamfeD4MMFXur6NbSVHJA8NjW8a3DgwmBHfMUJpump",
    "name": "Elon Over Bitches",
    "symbol": "EOB",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 28,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 73,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 4995.921636082534,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 664,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T13:02:02.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 4995.921636082534,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4995.921636082534,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 4995.921636082534,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 9991.843272165068
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $EOB would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $4,996, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $EOB (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha820fac938056815b5c15d55c9a2943573beec3dd4c859f9fc5c0d0183514998

Previous hashb20c902af784f2b31d2ff0e50bafcccc7fa1dc292b1612e3ddb6261bc3ee306e