Will "doobie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "doobie" (3 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -0.7218113259355755,
      "diversity": -0.797142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2862772508996843
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doobie",
    "rank60": 19,
    "share15": 0.009394572025052192,
    "share60": 0.019335511982570806,
    "total15": 478,
    "total60": 1835,
    "momentum": 0.48587138698579785,
    "diversity": 0.08571428571428572,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999729861111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2862772508996843
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012428650340637083,
  "shareRatio": 0.48019863811860025,
  "totalAfter": 43448,
  "shareBefore": 0.002601263470828688,
  "totalBefore": 45747,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 54,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 119
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity