GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3135 · narrative · 6H

Will "save" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "save" (21 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.33×.

Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": 0.28173305195183873,
      "diversity": -0.4245283018867924
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.462056339242598
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "save",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.038622129436325675,
    "share60": 0.029139433551198256,
    "total15": 478,
    "total60": 1835,
    "momentum": 1.325424853179326,
    "diversity": 0.39622641509433965,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998919444444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.462056339242598
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.214
Log loss0.620
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00980537810132224,
  "shareRatio": 0.9567161450700322,
  "totalAfter": 13462,
  "shareBefore": 0.010226712666338098,
  "totalBefore": 8116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 132,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "save" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.02% → 0.98% (-4%). PARTIAL.

— "save" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha29ce0ff7c104621450b0005a38d24b3402b3f799005edeb1d4dddb2d696f029
Previous hashcabb68fb69cef816838b53b87f41dfe79b04f979a27f78744b915678821208da