Ledger / Prediction #3135 · narrative · 6H
Will "save" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
53 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "save" (21 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.33×.
Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3541281001677032,
"momentum": 0.28173305195183873,
"diversity": -0.4245283018867924
},
"rawProbability": 0.462056339242598
},
"features": {
"term": "save",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.038622129436325675,
"share60": 0.029139433551198256,
"total15": 478,
"total60": 1835,
"momentum": 1.325424853179326,
"diversity": 0.39622641509433965,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 53,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998919444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.462056339242598
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 19:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.214
Log loss0.620
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00980537810132224,
"shareRatio": 0.9567161450700322,
"totalAfter": 13462,
"shareBefore": 0.010226712666338098,
"totalBefore": 8116,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 132,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 83
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 46% that "save" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.02% → 0.98% (-4%). PARTIAL.
— "save" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a29ce0ff7c104621450b0005a38d24b3402b3f799005edeb1d4dddb2d696f029Previous hash
cabb68fb69cef816838b53b87f41dfe79b04f979a27f78744b915678821208da