Will "paired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "paired" (52 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -2.3199176723601256,
      "diversity": 0.17586206896551726
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17602946324526195
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paired",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.003131524008350731,
    "share60": 0.031862745098039214,
    "total15": 478,
    "total60": 1835,
    "momentum": 0.0982816765697768,
    "diversity": 0.896551724137931,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 52
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998919444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17602946324526195
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006908334571386124,
  "shareRatio": 0.6160900813360559,
  "totalAfter": 13462,
  "shareBefore": 0.011212419911286348,
  "totalBefore": 8116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 93,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 91
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity