Ledger / Prediction #3133 · narrative · 6H
Will "seal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
61 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "seal" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.90×.
Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3752153927608816,
"momentum": 0.6423334825704143,
"diversity": -0.0934426229508197
},
"rawProbability": 0.5858594187586565
},
"features": {
"term": "seal",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.06367432150313153,
"share60": 0.03349673202614379,
"total15": 478,
"total60": 1835,
"momentum": 1.9009114517032437,
"diversity": 0.6721311475409836,
"launches15": 30,
"launches60": 61,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 41
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998919444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5858594187586565
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 19:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.343
Log loss0.882
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006611201901649087,
"shareRatio": 0.7994162326926197,
"totalAfter": 13462,
"shareBefore": 0.008255298176441597,
"totalBefore": 8116,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 89,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 67
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "seal" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.83% → 0.66% (-20%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "seal" (6H). momentum contributed +0.64 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
39e4275d1fff7a0d4a1821a0c92beb4bde39de8286bc99a0411126d18b395e96Previous hash
70fc1c2c17abe0909d8cb619126dcc6282c17a6b0bbb21c26e3ce3383ae105d4