GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3133 · narrative · 6H

Will "seal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "seal" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.90×.

Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": 0.6423334825704143,
      "diversity": -0.0934426229508197
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5858594187586565
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "seal",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.06367432150313153,
    "share60": 0.03349673202614379,
    "total15": 478,
    "total60": 1835,
    "momentum": 1.9009114517032437,
    "diversity": 0.6721311475409836,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998919444444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5858594187586565
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.343
Log loss0.882
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.006611201901649087,
  "shareRatio": 0.7994162326926197,
  "totalAfter": 13462,
  "shareBefore": 0.008255298176441597,
  "totalBefore": 8116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 89,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "seal" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.83% → 0.66% (-20%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "seal" (6H). momentum contributed +0.64 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash39e4275d1fff7a0d4a1821a0c92beb4bde39de8286bc99a0411126d18b395e96
Previous hash70fc1c2c17abe0909d8cb619126dcc6282c17a6b0bbb21c26e3ce3383ae105d4