Ledger / Prediction #3131 · narrative · 1H

Will "cowe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "cowe" (7 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -1.4726198119729221,
      "diversity": -0.7551724137931034
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10338733751016166
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cowe",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.007306889352818371,
    "share60": 0.031862745098039214,
    "total15": 478,
    "total60": 1835,
    "momentum": 0.22932391199614582,
    "diversity": 0.1206896551724138,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993516666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10338733751016166
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.804

Log loss2.269

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03524945770065076,
  "shareRatio": 1.1141963727329582,
  "totalAfter": 1844,
  "shareBefore": 0.03160762942779292,
  "totalBefore": 1835,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 65,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "cowe" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.16% → 3.52% (+12%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "cowe" (1H). momentum contributed -1.47 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 90% and wrong on "cowe". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdf5868bfd993dd576d8779d56f720f059dc2f0cb2c7abba7857635617408f442

Previous hash6bd0625da7f7b1b93e71cd4cefe38cd4d0a48363369d62aef4dd53f6afcd7d93