Ledger / Prediction #3130 · narrative · 1H
Will "seal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
61 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "seal" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.90×.
Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3752153927608816,
"momentum": 0.6423334825704143,
"diversity": -0.0934426229508197
},
"rawProbability": 0.6511518745497687
},
"features": {
"term": "seal",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.06367432150313153,
"share60": 0.03349673202614379,
"total15": 478,
"total60": 1835,
"momentum": 1.9009114517032437,
"diversity": 0.6721311475409836,
"launches15": 30,
"launches60": 61,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 41
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993516666666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6511518745497687
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.424
Log loss1.053
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.020607375271149676,
"shareRatio": 0.62296252230815,
"totalAfter": 1844,
"shareBefore": 0.0332425068119891,
"totalBefore": 1835,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 38,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 61
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "seal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.32% → 2.06% (-38%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "seal" (1H). momentum contributed +0.64 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6bd0625da7f7b1b93e71cd4cefe38cd4d0a48363369d62aef4dd53f6afcd7d93Previous hash
1957347a7f9d1b5105b4d7229abc99c84e58bd6eecaa35be5c97e6a317bb6d1f