Ledger / Prediction #313 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
160 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (112 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.17×.
Made2026-10-09 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 19:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.5198603854199589,
"momentum": 0.15438383320712995,
"diversity": -0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5779208872572441
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.07187017001545595,
"share60": 0.06158864159631619,
"total15": 646,
"total60": 2605,
"momentum": 1.166938710655939,
"diversity": 0.7,
"launches15": 46,
"launches60": 160,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 112
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 377,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921322222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921322222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5779208872572441
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.334
Log loss0.863
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.05087847730600293,
"shareRatio": 0.8245377015958795,
"totalAfter": 2732,
"shareBefore": 0.06173780487804878,
"totalBefore": 2624,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 139,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 162
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.17% → 5.09% (-18%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f62a8c6c841dbb2d15efde88cf12fc4efc7476e7c1991b5d68d440f1b2efa393Previous hash
96076bef4ad978d0fade845d48cabe1fd5a0930401091ac7c43eaa829715a202