Ledger / Prediction #3126 · token · 6H

Will $BRAVEDONUT still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 12m ago. website. Rides hot term "chain".

Made2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "BTTnwrQQWpYXwR5HVWa4jLJNGNpHVaS926AzQEHYPfEZ",
    "name": "Brave Donut",
    "symbol": "BRAVEDONUT",
    "hotTerms": [
      "chain"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 12,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 31,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2975.200247019635,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 571,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T12:48:35.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2974.9137510317023,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3307.0174125179847,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2975.200247019635,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5950.40049403927
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $BRAVEDONUT would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,975, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $BRAVEDONUT (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4bb78ea5a102bd3565176cdaadfc6dfae3ed888162da20363943e39e3e54f44c

Previous hash67bf42206d4df0d89b970df54043666924d32a4bbc3d8a1034d57a9fbc536260