Ledger / Prediction #3123 · narrative · 24H
Will "hello" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
35 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "hello" (19 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.50×.
Made2026-10-13 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.291886522358297,
"momentum": 0.4079201820917418,
"diversity": -0.2485714285714286
},
"rawProbability": 0.4814129784512997
},
"features": {
"term": "hello",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.031017369727047148,
"share60": 0.02062754212667054,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1720,
"momentum": 1.5036871352182575,
"diversity": 0.5428571428571428,
"launches15": 12,
"launches60": 35,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 207,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997188888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4814129784512997
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.269
Log loss0.731
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00979155678873627,
"shareRatio": 1.1217916189661392,
"totalAfter": 43609,
"shareBefore": 0.008727826749374251,
"totalBefore": 45945,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 427,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 401
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 48% that "hello" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.87% → 0.98% (+12%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "hello" (24H). diversity contributed -0.25 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
915640cd84966e99ab9cb02551e74d790610feb7584b231d29bdf26c168e2bccPrevious hash
90dc7051875ce7e0e59f6ccff912933e1310af52c373054cde21ae22f4c8113d