Will "p500" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "p500" (18 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.02×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": 0.7009479408682748,
      "diversity": -0.5516129032258064
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49087470193367644
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "p500",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.07320099255583126,
    "share60": 0.03631609529343405,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1720,
    "momentum": 2.01566253101737,
    "diversity": 0.2903225806451613,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 207,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997188888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49087470193367644
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007337934829966292,
  "shareRatio": 0.5227616048563691,
  "totalAfter": 43609,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014147350092501905,
  "totalBefore": 45945,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity