Ledger / Prediction #3120 · narrative · 6H

Will "sense" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "sense" (8 distinct creators, rank #112). Last 15m momentum 0.25×.

Made2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.3814891097913595,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26743177375114285
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sense",
    "rank60": 112,
    "share15": 0.0012406947890818859,
    "share60": 0.004938988959907031,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1720,
    "momentum": 0.2512042037658736,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 207,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988755555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26743177375114285
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.072

Log loss0.311

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00014993627708224006,
  "shareRatio": 0.15055630079696994,
  "totalAfter": 13339,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011793998165378064,
  "totalBefore": 7631,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "sense" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.01% (-87%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "sense" (6H). momentum contributed -1.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb2713e35cfb74e2fb28fc5dabbae7724f168f5806d09b4d75672a9c162ef8a36

Previous hasha897d9a73f4920ed1be96888ef0ff9ee472e11a14ecc076ee582be55ed73fd15