GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3118 · narrative · 6H

Will "robot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "robot" (5 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.99×.

Made2026-10-13 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": 1.3844720072556889,
      "diversity": -0.8016393442622951
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5916120790834464
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "robot",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.14267990074441686,
    "share60": 0.035735037768739104,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1720,
    "momentum": 3.992717222457584,
    "diversity": 0.08196721311475409,
    "launches15": 57,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 207,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988755555555555
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5916120790834464
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.350
Log loss0.896
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010495539395756804,
  "shareRatio": 0.11766882516188715,
  "totalAfter": 13339,
  "shareBefore": 0.009173109684182938,
  "totalBefore": 7631,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "robot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.92% → 0.10% (-89%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "robot" (6H). momentum contributed +1.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash44a547c9f23042180801870460e1d33238a7256d2d349b43adb1ece39d644385
Previous hash134b3d62d8c8f861bc4ca0cf46365d464afce5daea655c286ed4b1e6c9955786