Ledger / Prediction #3109 · token · 1H

Will $PILLPHIL still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-13 12:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "AUFYJSGWzkMcqxyLLohK2Za5kwMoKKRtq9w9pXNupump",
    "name": "PILLPHIL",
    "symbol": "PILLPHIL",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3221.246598586325,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 636,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T12:03:49.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2963.0941288089098,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3221.246598586325,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3221.246598586325,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6442.49319717265
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $PILLPHIL would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,963, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $PILLPHIL (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3531d8c07467d5480a3d138c02b36cde3018a06fdbbfe419763a8c359c3829e1

Previous hash278b0f2c66de191a546de06717e33dca0d3968ef4d7a5c5c59eca9a418205e85