Will "grimpoteuthi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "grimpoteuthi" (27 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -3.015480833644621,
      "diversity": -0.08999999999999994
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1548859824410995
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grimpoteuthi",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0012165450121654502,
    "share60": 0.024816176470588234,
    "total15": 410,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.049022258268000364,
    "diversity": 0.675,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 193,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957286111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999822025462963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1548859824410995
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000022889056741971663,
  "shareRatio": 0.03727734169886769,
  "totalAfter": 43689,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009101941747572816,
  "totalBefore": 46144,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity