Ledger / Prediction #3101 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 41% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
42 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (26 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.79×.
Made2026-10-13 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3192347558773902,
"momentum": -0.23046959140628281,
"diversity": -0.1571428571428571
},
"rawProbability": 0.4139003978078164
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.02068126520681265,
"share60": 0.026041666666666668,
"total15": 410,
"total60": 1631,
"momentum": 0.7941605839416057,
"diversity": 0.6190476190476191,
"launches15": 8,
"launches60": 42,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 26
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 193,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957286111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992881018518519
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4139003978078164
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.344
Log loss0.882
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03192058037418862,
"shareRatio": 1.5203400267527256,
"totalAfter": 13095,
"shareBefore": 0.020954440989590376,
"totalBefore": 7397,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 418,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 155
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 41% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.10% → 3.19% (+52%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed -0.23 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
3701726c13c870d1db347f13c9ad9958d4a57e92ab381f1f82572d61fc413ecdPrevious hash
485e44628fa60877f5d449522bda2050e20a4ad40d7b9127df99f4d5c1fc2c9d