Ledger / Prediction #3098 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (26 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.79×.

Made2026-10-13 12:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.23046959140628281,
      "diversity": -0.1571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4089330862990458
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.02068126520681265,
    "share60": 0.026041666666666668,
    "total15": 410,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.7941605839416057,
    "diversity": 0.6190476190476191,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 193,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957286111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957286111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4089330862990458
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.167

Log loss0.526

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015258855585831062,
  "shareRatio": 0.5982698961937716,
  "totalAfter": 1835,
  "shareBefore": 0.02565668906536347,
  "totalBefore": 1637,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.57% → 1.53% (-41%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.23 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0ea4ed26c0c9f429cf01db3790a0b5e95f6e16d202a831c72066901927da6d39

Previous hashe0fee6197984f37ab542fef9eff8ab1236cdd69430c020e9bcabe2beeda77d58