Ledger / Prediction #3092 · narrative · 24H
Will "musk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 33% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
12 of 1313 launches in the last hour referenced "musk" (8 distinct creators, rank #33). Last 15m momentum 0.43×.
Made2026-10-13 12:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 12:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 11:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.13132031060308497,
"momentum": -0.8502289811960624,
"diversity": -0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.3297194233527493
},
"features": {
"term": "musk",
"rank60": 33,
"share15": 0.0040650406504065045,
"share60": 0.009512937595129375,
"total15": 368,
"total60": 1313,
"momentum": 0.42731707317073175,
"diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 12,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 134,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974116666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998921527777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3297194233527493
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 12:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.109
Log loss0.400
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0036114285714285714,
"shareRatio": 0.931123643556671,
"totalAfter": 43750,
"shareBefore": 0.0038800017340789874,
"totalBefore": 46134,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 158,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 179
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 33% that "musk" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.36% (-7%). PARTIAL.
— "musk" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ace993edbfe32eb62efea5fd5e8244d6353bd51f75f619c435b2eeaefd066086Previous hash
2f765d9f2f00bae012e40b210ee8ec9447993b3f726dd6f8a61d34130d70b5db