Will "jellyfish" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1313 launches in the last hour referenced "jellyfish" (21 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": -2.807502888901691,
      "diversity": -0.031034482758620682
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10886366799569883
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jellyfish",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0013550135501355014,
    "share60": 0.022450532724505326,
    "total15": 368,
    "total60": 1313,
    "momentum": 0.060355518809425385,
    "diversity": 0.7241379310344828,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 134,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995686111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10886366799569883
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010883084577114428,
  "shareRatio": 0.26985185136390283,
  "totalAfter": 12864,
  "shareBefore": 0.00410648541489663,
  "totalBefore": 7062,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity