GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3086 · narrative · 6H

Will "cowe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1313 launches in the last hour referenced "cowe" (9 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.36×.

Made2026-10-13 12:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 11:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.8585271324399018,
      "diversity": -0.6365853658536585
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5190640844520115
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cowe",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.07452574525745258,
    "share60": 0.031582952815829526,
    "total15": 368,
    "total60": 1313,
    "momentum": 2.3596826329709084,
    "diversity": 0.21951219512195122,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 134,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995686111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5190640844520115
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 18:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.231
Log loss0.656
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.015391791044776119,
  "shareRatio": 2.5641946914793903,
  "totalAfter": 12864,
  "shareBefore": 0.00594732370433305,
  "totalBefore": 7062,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 198,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "cowe" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.59% → 1.54% (+159%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cowe" (6H). momentum contributed +0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash686e97241b4fc3187b7bfabb7f0b35a69f31258eccb78e662a6f6859767dd6b8
Previous hash54c58ed4956b582ea4d63f4442adfe6727d62ec5beb06ea73e363357784208c6