Ledger / Prediction #3086 · narrative · 6H
Will "cowe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
41 of 1313 launches in the last hour referenced "cowe" (9 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.36×.
Made2026-10-13 12:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 11:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3156201231405311,
"momentum": 0.8585271324399018,
"diversity": -0.6365853658536585
},
"rawProbability": 0.5190640844520115
},
"features": {
"term": "cowe",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.07452574525745258,
"share60": 0.031582952815829526,
"total15": 368,
"total60": 1313,
"momentum": 2.3596826329709084,
"diversity": 0.21951219512195122,
"launches15": 27,
"launches60": 41,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 134,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974116666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995686111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5190640844520115
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 18:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.231
Log loss0.656
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.015391791044776119,
"shareRatio": 2.5641946914793903,
"totalAfter": 12864,
"shareBefore": 0.00594732370433305,
"totalBefore": 7062,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 198,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 42
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "cowe" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.59% → 1.54% (+159%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "cowe" (6H). momentum contributed +0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
686e97241b4fc3187b7bfabb7f0b35a69f31258eccb78e662a6f6859767dd6b8Previous hash
54c58ed4956b582ea4d63f4442adfe6727d62ec5beb06ea73e363357784208c6