Ledger / Prediction #3082 · narrative · 1H

Will "rsi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 1313 launches in the last hour referenced "rsi" (19 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.48×.

Made2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.3923160979161133,
      "diversity": -0.3818181818181818
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5091766380105477
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rsi",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.05013550135501355,
    "share60": 0.033866057838660577,
    "total15": 368,
    "total60": 1313,
    "momentum": 1.4804055905727598,
    "diversity": 0.4318181818181818,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 134,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974116666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5091766380105477
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.259

Log loss0.712

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005773672055427252,
  "shareRatio": 0.02561642148122694,
  "totalAfter": 1732,
  "shareBefore": 0.03343465045592705,
  "totalBefore": 1316,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "rsi" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 0.06% (-98%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "rsi" (1H). momentum contributed +0.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash72615a07748248c1c533e73bd295fb8b36660e21c47db999b4f6ffe3777f62b3

Previous hash8275d81fe229186806915b56f3a903b789cb74bb14f25cd05baac9c5a8bcbb74