Will "achicoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1231 launches in the last hour referenced "achicoin" (7 distinct creators, rank #38). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -1.6322281782237549,
      "diversity": -0.13636363636363638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24505511442448166
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "achicoin",
    "rank60": 38,
    "share15": 0.0018248175182481751,
    "share60": 0.009334415584415584,
    "total15": 273,
    "total60": 1231,
    "momentum": 0.19549349412884798,
    "diversity": 0.6363636363636364,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 146,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999966550925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24505511442448166
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00009137218173926949,
  "shareRatio": 0.24438513197707312,
  "totalAfter": 43777,
  "shareBefore": 0.0004098360655737705,
  "totalBefore": 46360,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity