Will "irlcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1231 launches in the last hour referenced "irlcat" (5 distinct creators, rank #85). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2047841633968153,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24268420005480854
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "irlcat",
    "rank60": 85,
    "share15": 0.0018248175182481751,
    "share60": 0.006087662337662338,
    "total15": 273,
    "total60": 1231,
    "momentum": 0.2997566909975669,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 146,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999866203703703
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24268420005480854
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.03751073883161512,
  "totalAfter": 12415,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010021474588403723,
  "totalBefore": 6985,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity