Ledger / Prediction #3062 · token · 6H

Will $WAIF still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 28m ago. website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "13ysjESViDAQXY6RhYzXGnPqAHGKLKnDKeqae4z3pump",
    "name": "World AI Fund",
    "symbol": "WAIF",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 28,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 21,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 6980743.458210312,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 411,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.872

Log loss2.714

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T16:11:39.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1914.0710556787,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 8359422.263469557,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 6980743.458210312,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 13961486.916420624
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $WAIF would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $1,914, graduated). INCORRECT.

— website was right but too weak on $WAIF (6H). website contributed +0.30 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on $WAIF (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

— Overconfident: 93% and wrong on $WAIF. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

3 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash17ce6f97247f00fdcd0681f7826b9f0f79d4207e61e46eaeabf25944cf347223

Previous hash6a8e89a19f31c8e1a6f0048ac688cb78dbb2c46ef81988d08019fa21944d58c7