Will "green" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 2706 launches in the last hour referenced "green" (12 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": 0.26828001646269556,
      "diversity": -0.6818181818181818
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.421028202015926
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "green",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.03212520593080725,
    "share60": 0.024565940155153305,
    "total15": 606,
    "total60": 2706,
    "momentum": 1.3077132699954168,
    "diversity": 0.18181818181818182,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 464,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9951961111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991993518518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.421028202015926
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006945822583846001,
  "shareRatio": 0.8191738931296905,
  "totalAfter": 15117,
  "shareBefore": 0.008485506754463376,
  "totalBefore": 14731,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 105,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 125
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity