Ledger / Prediction #3051 · narrative · 1H

Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1208 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (20 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

Made2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": 0.02674750836702836,
      "diversity": -0.4862068965517241
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4032819873473779
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wif",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.04969879518072289,
    "share60": 0.04838709677419355,
    "total15": 331,
    "total60": 1208,
    "momentum": 1.0271084337349399,
    "diversity": 0.3448275862068966,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 136,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946458333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946458333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4032819873473779
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.163

Log loss0.516

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00911854103343465,
  "shareRatio": 0.1972885799765071,
  "totalAfter": 1316,
  "shareBefore": 0.047736625514403296,
  "totalBefore": 1215,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "wif" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.77% → 0.91% (-81%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "wif" (1H). diversity contributed -0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash02ba375bec1bf51cd89e2d23d9f6082d357acd2feecc909ca39efac75c734c3b

Previous hash2879587e2d7d3211c9e9a0b986a23289e113982654f886e548b44130ab70cf4a