Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

79 of 2706 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (77 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41400149100493816,
      "momentum": -0.2779998376610994,
      "diversity": 0.2696202531645569
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49598392000890795
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.022240527182866558,
    "share60": 0.029368304396010344,
    "total15": 606,
    "total60": 2706,
    "momentum": 0.7572969444530789,
    "diversity": 0.9746835443037974,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 79,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 77
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 464,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9951961111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991993518518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49598392000890795
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015280809684461202,
  "shareRatio": 0.8218186935512282,
  "totalAfter": 15117,
  "shareBefore": 0.01860023080578372,
  "totalBefore": 14731,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 231,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 274
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity