Ledger / Prediction #3049 · narrative · 1H

Will "free" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 76% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 1208 launches in the last hour referenced "free" (39 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 3.42×.

Made2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": 1.2283920229333731,
      "diversity": -0.16874999999999998
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7580574363407309
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "free",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.1822289156626506,
    "share60": 0.05334987593052109,
    "total15": 331,
    "total60": 1208,
    "momentum": 3.4157326982347995,
    "diversity": 0.609375,
    "launches15": 60,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 136,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946458333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946458333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7580574363407309
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.575

Log loss1.419

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00303951367781155,
  "shareRatio": 0.0644170154155851,
  "totalAfter": 1316,
  "shareBefore": 0.05267489711934156,
  "totalBefore": 1215,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 76% that "free" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.27% → 0.30% (-94%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "free" (1H). momentum contributed +1.23 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 76% and wrong on "free". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasheea16b114d374d917e8502079aad45776efb0f0e87e6e09864710fba94d1bfa1

Previous hashcc8c95b95059a6a5e84e588f0813c8de6a52e22521cbb24bef8fe8583d0bf6d0