Ledger / Prediction #3042 · narrative · 24H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1026 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (33 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.50×.

Made2026-10-13 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -0.6950927064654366,
      "diversity": 0.14210526315789476
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39546850878675316
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.01870748299319728,
    "share60": 0.037487828627069134,
    "total15": 293,
    "total60": 1026,
    "momentum": 0.4990281827016521,
    "diversity": 0.868421052631579,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 106,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974333333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998930555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39546850878675316
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 10:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.156

Log loss0.503

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.023938365587452996,
  "shareRatio": 0.9473428082162851,
  "totalAfter": 43612,
  "shareBefore": 0.02527037383973431,
  "totalBefore": 46972,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1044,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 1187
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "uxento" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.53% → 2.39% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash03f9a46389bdf9dea25ee42c4d2c4681aef5d82bdde44e8fcb1e05704a5d328d

Previous hashaab7cca76faa7052aae29d9b9ddd26ee44e0ba039c8faefdb870bb6e0e9d5bbf