GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3035 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1026 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (19 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.

Made2026-10-13 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.10872004198202803,
      "diversity": 0.09130434782608696
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5321886300695069
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.025510204081632654,
    "share60": 0.022882181110029213,
    "total15": 293,
    "total60": 1026,
    "momentum": 1.1148501953973078,
    "diversity": 0.8260869565217391,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 106,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974333333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974333333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5321886300695069
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.283
Log loss0.760
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.010560519902518278,
  "shareRatio": 0.4802777010223819,
  "totalAfter": 1231,
  "shareBefore": 0.022351797862001945,
  "totalBefore": 1029,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 23
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.24% → 1.06% (-53%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.23 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashee6e8a56d0ab56aa52b6b7d5c03368dc53da9fd46465f8bc262edf8cd8214ad4
Previous hash5ff2117c95fc2c5f990daa70d79c9311b1d9b1906935f7627fe18064d92a4a07