Ledger / Prediction #3031 · token · 1H

Will $cap still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "dog". Creator launched 21 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GHEGbAChvhd3C19S1kbn3dT4UNbNqjpYWGhPfG26pump",
    "name": "dog wif cap",
    "symbol": "cap",
    "hotTerms": [
      "dog",
      "wif",
      "cap"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3033.387302475848,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 21
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 318,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T09:51:13.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 7251.690202207895,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7948.973840364621,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3033.387302475848,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6066.774604951696
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $cap would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $7,252, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $cap (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8c2528cd55a82728d977efad4e64dff5242a209b8d930f813e86b5706a343d00

Previous hashdf85f7d6a44ed36fc84ae0cf5460fa97a62afd27a8f22f79101a816fe8337694