Will "launchpad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 1044 launches in the last hour referenced "launchpad" (10 distinct creators, rank #47). Last 15m momentum 2.00×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": 0.692828252156668,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5617826877826457
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "launchpad",
    "rank60": 47,
    "share15": 0.020089285714285716,
    "share60": 0.010047846889952153,
    "total15": 223,
    "total60": 1044,
    "momentum": 1.9993622448979593,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 105,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924363888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996848495370371
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5617826877826457
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005689378297774719,
  "shareRatio": 0.8782639665917239,
  "totalAfter": 43590,
  "shareBefore": 0.00648044219487918,
  "totalBefore": 47219,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 248,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 306
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity