Ledger / Prediction #3023 · narrative · 6H

Will "files" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1044 launches in the last hour referenced "files" (16 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.54×.

Made2026-10-13 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -0.6116360907155906,
      "diversity": 0.014285714285714235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3618228023471196
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "files",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.011160714285714286,
    "share60": 0.02057416267942584,
    "total15": 223,
    "total60": 1044,
    "momentum": 0.5424626245847176,
    "diversity": 0.7619047619047619,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 105,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924363888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987393981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3618228023471196
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.131

Log loss0.449

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007505394502298527,
  "shareRatio": 0.2383332695179385,
  "totalAfter": 10659,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032777929527451517,
  "totalBefore": 7322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "files" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.08% (-77%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "files" (6H). momentum contributed -0.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8b97a613ee71ee4ab4fbf2c1ae041373a3c710e019c698269c9d670f9138fe6a

Previous hash25c3990d9fed1604f1d307e92e3ae89d9db203062a6a0fa33f1cec83e3bd80d0