Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1044 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (12 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": 0.35054204567003505,
      "diversity": -0.4764705882352941
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46545757396004267
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.046875,
    "share60": 0.03301435406698565,
    "total15": 223,
    "total60": 1044,
    "momentum": 1.419836956521739,
    "diversity": 0.35294117647058826,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 105,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924363888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924363888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46545757396004267
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04197530864197531,
  "shareRatio": 1.2987938596491229,
  "totalAfter": 1215,
  "shareBefore": 0.03216650898770104,
  "totalBefore": 1057,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 51,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity