Ledger / Prediction #3006 · narrative · 6H

Will "sol95" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1177 launches in the last hour referenced "sol95" (12 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

Made2026-10-13 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": 0.17137598610913773,
      "diversity": -0.38571428571428573
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43311668496785066
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sol95",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.028716216216216218,
    "share60": 0.024193548387096774,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1177,
    "momentum": 1.1869369369369371,
    "diversity": 0.42857142857142855,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 156,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957491666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992915277777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43311668496785066
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.188

Log loss0.568

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003052813676605271,
  "shareRatio": 0.09410456340280902,
  "totalAfter": 9827,
  "shareBefore": 0.0037184594953519256,
  "totalBefore": 7530,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "sol95" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.03% (-92%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "sol95" (6H). diversity contributed -0.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf1d4435dacb13a83b8d84c5c0711e88e641bf8ff9c08943c22f888653374e969

Previous hashf8cd7f09cc5b8e3a456d2d2122ff8777d7cc978c6f924da30687eb3473cc1111