Ledger / Prediction #3001 · narrative · 1H

Will "number" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1177 launches in the last hour referenced "number" (17 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

Made2026-10-13 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": -0.08512315890595533,
      "diversity": -0.2625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4087395494156448
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "number",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.02533783783783784,
    "share60": 0.027589134125636672,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1177,
    "momentum": 0.9183991683991685,
    "diversity": 0.53125,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 156,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957491666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957491666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4087395494156448
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 10:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.167

Log loss0.525

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009718172983479105,
  "shareRatio": 0.053144137415982076,
  "totalAfter": 1029,
  "shareBefore": 0.0270042194092827,
  "totalBefore": 1185,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "number" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.70% → 0.10% (-96%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "number" (1H). diversity contributed -0.26 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1489954581b92840e00b0370a7ee8e5a30dfa230b398b1a000edcd911e5f19e5

Previous hash37c457890897fcb59e5ecda48eeef9af139f75099215c609ba048b3d69887562