Ledger / Prediction #2996 · narrative · 24H

Will "games" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1136 launches in the last hour referenced "games" (5 distinct creators, rank #171). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.

Made2026-10-13 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.13474668874057422,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47935508027775087
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "games",
    "rank60": 171,
    "share15": 0.005535055350553505,
    "share60": 0.004837291116974494,
    "total15": 270,
    "total60": 1136,
    "momentum": 1.1442468970144246,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999391087962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47935508027775087
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.230

Log loss0.653

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001468900619692449,
  "shareRatio": 0.7107726555939597,
  "totalAfter": 43570,
  "shareBefore": 0.002072300253281142,
  "totalBefore": 47773,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 64,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 99
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "games" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.15% (-29%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "games" (24H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4a45590a5ff7db49a55a1a0d1f8175590fa612174458c1747a3ca98bdf4568bf

Previous hashec8434ed8fdc62977338f2a450bcb2da5834d400ac32e0a2f6e3dd7ee468249b