Will "fritzfrog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1136 launches in the last hour referenced "fritzfrog" (16 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": -2.4161179288392236,
      "diversity": -0.06521739130434785
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1936893602772841
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fritzfrog",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.0018450184501845018,
    "share60": 0.020668425681618294,
    "total15": 270,
    "total60": 1136,
    "momentum": 0.08926748841956504,
    "diversity": 0.6956521739130435,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999391087962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1936893602772841
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001606610052788616,
  "shareRatio": 0.349935077840668,
  "totalAfter": 43570,
  "shareBefore": 0.00048144349318652793,
  "totalBefore": 47773,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 23
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity