Will "realist" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1136 launches in the last hour referenced "realist" (17 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.14×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": 0.7610851996284094,
      "diversity": -0.049999999999999954
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6561936966056238
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "realist",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.046125461254612546,
    "share60": 0.021547933157431837,
    "total15": 270,
    "total60": 1136,
    "momentum": 2.140597936591611,
    "diversity": 0.7083333333333334,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985386111111111
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6561936966056238
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006622516556291391,
  "shareRatio": 0.3295590447899387,
  "totalAfter": 1057,
  "shareBefore": 0.0210896309314587,
  "totalBefore": 1138,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity