Ledger / Prediction #2982 · token · 6H

Will $batoncat still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "cat".

Made2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3rcFmU59MPHnp8KJ64PD8MLbBmv4q4q7XG1q9ExRpump",
    "name": "cat wif baton",
    "symbol": "batoncat",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat",
      "wif"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 18027.51443363241,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 356,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.872

Log loss2.714

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T10:36:22.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2632.8229580104626,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 57940.436554955464,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 18027.51443363241,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 36055.02886726482
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $batoncat would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $2,633, graduated). INCORRECT.

— hotTerm was right but too weak on $batoncat (6H). hotTerm contributed +0.30 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on $batoncat (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

— Overconfident: 93% and wrong on $batoncat. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

3 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash328c9a573cb9395dd2eb988cbb545ffcb2da51e5067863f80043ef2fab7605df

Previous hash421026d1c6d071549e046555e47f4571439b86c8efce5b38a79aca2a46f4c179