Ledger / Prediction #2971 · narrative · 1H

Will "pcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1185 launches in the last hour referenced "pcat" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -2.951558335332895,
      "diversity": -0.8142857142857143
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pcat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0018726591760299626,
    "share60": 0.03583473861720068,
    "total15": 266,
    "total60": 1185,
    "momentum": 0.052258206653447895,
    "diversity": 0.07142857142857142,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 114,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929836111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008438818565400844,
  "shareRatio": 0.03571074298184704,
  "totalAfter": 1185,
  "shareBefore": 0.03502919099249374,
  "totalBefore": 1199,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "pcat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.50% → 0.08% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pcat" (1H). momentum contributed -2.95 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4e8d8ccea9c33553d7f513b8d284fa6cff8d82d910b57426628cf47db2b74695

Previous hashf6f915cb065b4a400ecf24d57682c70036a84da5b339a9e786d4583d2ad16027